Israel Heads to a Divided Vote With Netanyahu Still Defining the Race

Israelis vote on Tuesday in an election that is less a contest between left and right than a referendum on one man. Benjamin Netanyahu first became prime minister three decades ago and has held the office for 19 of the past 30 years. The two camps are best described as pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu, and polls show them running close.

At a rally this week in Modi'in, between Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, supporters of the leading opposition challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, cheered a speaker who is far from a showman. Eisenkot is a former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff, the son of working-class Moroccan Jews, and entered politics only four years ago. His party's name, Yashar, means straight or direct. He calls for "a country without lies" and proposes US-style term limits for prime ministers, "because power corrupts." Attendees said his plain style is an asset. Noa Sadeh, 56, said she is tired of people "who know how to talk" and wants someone "who will do the doing part."

The opposition bloc includes former prime minister Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, both natural figures of the nationalist right who once worked closely with Netanyahu before falling out with him. On the far right, the pitch is also framed around the prime minister. Yishai Fleisher of Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit party told voters in Bet Shemesh that Netanyahu tends to drift left and must be pulled to the right. He argued for more settlements in the West Bank and Gaza, a ministry to encourage the "voluntary" departure of Palestinians, the death penalty and more weapons for Jewish civilians.

Netanyahu has also shaped the terms of the fight. His latest posters offer a rhyming choice between Yamin, the right, and Falastin, Palestine, placing opposition leaders alongside the heads of two parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel, who make up about a fifth of the population. The closing weeks have centred on whether the anti-Netanyahu Jewish parties, forecast to outpoll his bloc but fall short of a Knesset majority, would rely on mainly Arab parties. Pro-Netanyahu media, notably Channel 14, have helped keep his opponents on the defensive.

One exception came this week, when Channel 14's Yinon Magal called Eisenkot a Moroccan "monkey." Speakers at the Modi'in rally raised the slur, but Eisenkot did not. Admirers saw restraint, while doubters saw a politician who does not grasp who he is up against.

The close polling puzzles many observers. The deadliest attack in Israel's history, the 7 October 2023 massacres at the Nova festival and southern kibbutzim, occurred on Netanyahu's watch. His war in Gaza killed more than 70,000 Palestinians, of whom Israel says a third were Hamas combatants, yet did not eradicate Hamas, and Israel's international standing has suffered. Iran's nuclear threat was not destroyed as promised. He also faces the fallout from his attempt to curb the supreme court, the Qatargate affair involving his closest aides, and an ongoing corruption trial. Oded Levi, who voted for Netanyahu in 2022 but attended the Eisenkot rally, said whoever was prime minister then "is responsible."

Netanyahu's durability rests on a loyal base built over three decades, which has not been shaken even by reports that he received credible warnings of an attack and failed to act. His allies promote an account in which army and intelligence chiefs kept him in the dark, an unfounded claim. He is also seen as a gifted coalition builder, and many expect him to outmaneuver rivals in the talks that follow the vote.

Opposition hopes rest partly on energy abroad. Many liberal, secular expatriate Israelis are flying home to vote, a group pollsters do not capture and one that could matter if the result turns on a single one of the Knesset's 120 seats. On Thursday, a state ceremony marked the 1995 assassination of Yitzhak Rabin. Netanyahu stayed away and sent a low-ranking minister. Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats and a former general, said he is optimistic and hopes opposition leaders can agree on a regional strategic process for long-term security, though he avoided the words "peace process."

The word peace has been tainted for many Israelis, but it has not vanished. A video shared widely this week showed scores of young Israelis at a Negev music festival singing Shir LaShalom, the song Rabin sang before he was shot 31 years ago. For some Israelis, that and the full flights home suggest the age of Netanyahu may be nearing its end.